Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.43 – 0

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±14

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 162.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 8.02Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -12.92Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±9.8

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -28.78Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -0.47Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 17.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8884, 9592, 6864

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8884, 9592, 6864

Auto

32.9 22%

Teleop

92.2 62%

Endgame

23.0 16%

Strengths

· 8884 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6865, 5672, 8349

/ 100 compat

Projected

-11.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6865, 5672, 8349

Auto

-2.0 10%

Teleop

-25.3 100%

Endgame

7.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.4pts

Blue projected score-11.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 157.4
Score range: -29–186
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.3Season APEX190.6

32.9Auto-2

92.2Teleop-25.3

23Endgame7.1

44Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	5
teleop	134	7
endgame	39	5
foul	0	15
total	197	32

Result

Final score

197 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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