Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

344.68 – 162.36

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

396 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.3 ±9.8

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 91.09Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 48.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 205.27Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.8 ±10.4

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 85.91Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 44.03Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 32.42Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 865, 4951, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 865, 4951, 7558

Auto

55.2 16%

Teleop

204.2 60%

Endgame

80.0 24%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5031, 1310, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5031, 1310, 10611

Auto

42.7 28%

Teleop

81.0 54%

Endgame

26.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score344.7pts

Blue projected score162.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 182.3
Score range: 133–374
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 160.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.3Season APEX300.8

55.2Auto42.7

204.2Teleop81

80Endgame26.7

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	31
teleop	238	40
endgame	96	70
foul	0	0
total	396	141

Result

Final score

396 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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