Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.5 – 136.72

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 75.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 103.5 ±13.9

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 13.56Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 32.53Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 32.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±11

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 38.45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX -0.46Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 98.73Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8081, 6859, 4015

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8081, 6859, 4015

Auto

35.5 46%

Teleop

32.4 42%

Endgame

9.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6397, 3739, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6397, 3739, 4069

Auto

22.3 17%

Teleop

72.4 54%

Endgame

38.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.5pts

Blue projected score136.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.2
Score range: 50–166
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

103.5Season APEX345.9

35.5Auto22.3

32.4Teleop72.4

9.6Endgame38.8

40Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	18	134
endgame	8	103
foul	0	0
total	46	256

Result

Final score

46 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 75.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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