Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.44 – 202.63

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.9 ±9.8

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 52.85Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 148.49Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -22.9Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.5 ±11

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 70.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 14.32Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 118.2Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7200, 188, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7200, 188, 9580

Auto

43.0 24%

Teleop

97.7 55%

Endgame

36.5 21%

Strengths

· 188 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4920, 9782, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4920, 9782, 1305

Auto

24.1 13%

Teleop

99.5 52%

Endgame

67.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.4pts

Blue projected score202.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.2
Score range: 149–232
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 159.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.9Season APEX371.5

43Auto24.1

97.7Teleop99.5

36.5Endgame67.7

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	23
teleop	196	110
endgame	50	42
foul	15	15
total	291	190

Result

Final score

291 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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