Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.45 – 68.55

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 76.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.3 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 28.57Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 176.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 91.3Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.3 ±10.4

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 25.14Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 23.56Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 19.85Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 8884, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 8884, 9569

Auto

19.6 7%

Teleop

181.4 62%

Endgame

90.7 31%

Strengths

· 8884 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4688, 10611, 854

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4688, 10611, 854

Auto

27.6 40%

Teleop

27.5 39%

Endgame

14.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score296.5pts

Blue projected score68.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 227.9
Score range: 40–325
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 158.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.3Season APEX250.3

19.6Auto27.6

181.4Teleop27.5

90.7Endgame14.6

0Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	16
teleop	137	67
endgame	36	45
foul	10	10
total	212	138

Result

Final score

212 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 76.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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