Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.01 – 81.49

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

364 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.1 ±12.4

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 189.75Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -3.72Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 44.98Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.1 ±15.3

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 20.08Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 29.12Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 32.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7558, 8081, 7603

/ 100 compat

Projected

231 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7558, 8081, 7603

Auto

49.1 21%

Teleop

129.6 56%

Endgame

54.4 23%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9592, 6110, 6859

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9592, 6110, 6859

Auto

25.0 33%

Teleop

28.0 37%

Endgame

21.9 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231pts

Blue projected score81.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.5
Score range: 53–259
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 157.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.1Season APEX131.1

49.1Auto25

129.6Teleop28

54.4Endgame21.9

28Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	17
teleop	232	22
endgame	71	11
foul	20	5
total	364	55

Result

Final score

364 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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