Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.64 – 164.28

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 318

Prediction missed · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.9 ±11

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 38.6Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 84.09Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 72.95Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.5 ±10.4

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 28.53Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 77.37Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 58.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6397, 865, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6397, 865, 4920

Auto

43.6 23%

Teleop

111.7 59%

Endgame

32.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 9569, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4951, 9569, 5885

Auto

26.4 17%

Teleop

83.7 54%

Endgame

46.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.6pts

Blue projected score164.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.4
Score range: 136–224
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 154.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.9Season APEX347.5

43.6Auto26.4

111.7Teleop83.7

32.6Endgame46.2

2Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	35
teleop	120	203
endgame	69	80
foul	10	0
total	220	318

Result

Final score

220 – 318

Prediction missed · off by 89 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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