Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.08 – 365.82

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 131.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.8 ±11.7

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 68.56Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 11.69Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 120.83Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582 ±9.8

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 99.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 225.97Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 39.89Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9569, 6859, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9569, 6859, 1305

Auto

38.0 20%

Teleop

102.0 53%

Endgame

53.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5885, 7558, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5885, 7558, 3739

Auto

60.4 17%

Teleop

216.2 60%

Endgame

83.3 23%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.1pts

Blue projected score365.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.7
Score range: 168–399
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 183.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.8Season APEX582

38Auto60.4

102Teleop216.2

53.4Endgame83.3

47Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	48
teleop	138	131
endgame	110	5
foul	0	0
total	283	184

Result

Final score

283 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 131.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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