Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.64 – 172.39

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.9 ±10.4

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 91.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 13.43Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -25.66Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.2 ±11.7

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 8.02Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 122.95Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 41.42Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2706, 854, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2706, 854, 6865

Auto

16.1 22%

Teleop

33.1 44%

Endgame

25.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5672, 1305, 4015

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5672, 1305, 4015

Auto

29.2 17%

Teleop

82.3 48%

Endgame

58.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.6pts

Blue projected score172.4pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.7
Score range: 52–200
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.9Season APEX276.2

16.1Auto29.2

33.1Teleop82.3

25.2Endgame58.4

147Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	53
teleop	67	52
endgame	49	25
foul	0	15
total	138	145

Result

Final score

138 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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