Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.84 – 180.36

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.8 ±10.4

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 20.94Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -28.06Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 78.96Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.7 ±11.7

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 81.66Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 8.66Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 90.04Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4688, 9580, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4688, 9580, 865

Auto

29.1 50%

Teleop

35.0 60%

Endgame

-6.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4920, 8081, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4920, 8081, 4069

Auto

32.4 18%

Teleop

87.1 50%

Endgame

55.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.8pts

Blue projected score180.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.5
Score range: 44–208
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 153.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.8Season APEX384.7

29.1Auto32.4

35Teleop87.1

-6.1Endgame55.8

19Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	39
teleop	39	66
endgame	23	17
foul	0	10
total	122	132

Result

Final score

122 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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