Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.73 – 193.94

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.4 ±11.7

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 41.8Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX -0.96Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 78.89Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.5 ±9.9

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 8.28Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 174.99Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 10.67Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4015, 3739, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4015, 3739, 5031

Auto

25.3 22%

Teleop

77.7 67%

Endgame

13.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9782, 7558, 8349

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9782, 7558, 8349

Auto

25.0 13%

Teleop

126.2 66%

Endgame

38.6 20%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.7pts

Blue projected score193.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.2
Score range: 93–221
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.4Season APEX461.5

25.3Auto25

77.7Teleop126.2

13.6Endgame38.6

54Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	92	187
endgame	24	132
foul	0	10
total	140	341

Result

Final score

140 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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