Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.29 – 191.22

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±13.9

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 21.14Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 69.47Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 32.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.6 ±9.8

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 51.93Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX -15.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 154.63Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 854, 5885, 9592

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 5885, 9592

Auto

27.2 25%

Teleop

61.1 55%

Endgame

22.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1310, 7659, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1310, 7659, 188

Auto

28.5 15%

Teleop

110.8 59%

Endgame

49.7 26%

Strengths

· 188 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.3pts

Blue projected score191.2pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.9
Score range: 95–219
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.4Season APEX412.6

27.2Auto28.5

61.1Teleop110.8

22.3Endgame49.7

94Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	50
teleop	20	65
endgame	0	34
foul	0	15
total	71	164

Result

Final score

71 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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