Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.1 – 196.4

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±10.4

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 75.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -1.65Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 19.34Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±11.7

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 87.07Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 39.26Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 70.07Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2706, 5672, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2706, 5672, 4951

Auto

2.5 3%

Teleop

50.8 64%

Endgame

25.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9569, 7200, 7603

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9569, 7200, 7603

Auto

32.2 17%

Teleop

94.6 49%

Endgame

66.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.1pts

Blue projected score196.4pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.3
Score range: 65–224
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.7Season APEX311.8

2.5Auto32.2

50.8Teleop94.6

25.8Endgame66.6

72Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	47	71
endgame	62	46
foul	15	0
total	148	135

Result

Final score

148 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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