Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.66 – 372.91

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.6 ±11.2

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 67.97Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 4.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 9.41Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 749.1 ±9.3

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 152.79Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 149.3Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 70.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5031, 8349, 8081

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5031, 8349, 8081

Auto

30.1 42%

Teleop

43.1 59%

Endgame

-0.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8884, 7558, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8884, 7558, 4920

Auto

52.2 14%

Teleop

236.6 65%

Endgame

77.5 21%

Strengths

· 8884 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.7pts

Blue projected score372.9pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -291.2
Score range: 55–400
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 149.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.6Season APEX749.1

30.1Auto52.2

43.1Teleop236.6

-0.7Endgame77.5

18Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	58
teleop	59	307
endgame	26	132
foul	5	0
total	110	497

Result

Final score

110 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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