Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100 – 90.45

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.6 ±14.4

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -4.75Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 65.19Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 39.56Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.4 ±12.2

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 6.88Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 76.95Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 6.62Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6865, 6397, 9592

/ 100 compat

Projected

100 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6865, 6397, 9592

Auto

17.8 23%

Teleop

36.3 46%

Endgame

24.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9782, 7603, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9782, 7603, 3739

Auto

11.5 14%

Teleop

61.2 74%

Endgame

10.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100pts

Blue projected score90.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.5
Score range: 62–128
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 154.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.6Season APEX231.4

17.8Auto11.5

36.3Teleop61.2

24.8Endgame10.4

89Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	9
teleop	23	19
endgame	13	24
foul	0	0
total	47	52

Result

Final score

47 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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