Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.5 – 65.89

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 7.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.2 ±13.9

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 39.43Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 73.66Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 17.41Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.4 ±10.4

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -25.44Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 14.05Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 77.28Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 7200, 9592

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1310, 7200, 9592

Auto

37.8 31%

Teleop

57.2 47%

Endgame

27.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6865, 4688, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6865, 4688, 5031

Auto

21.1 36%

Teleop

23.6 41%

Endgame

13.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.5pts

Blue projected score65.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.6
Score range: 33–164
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 183.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.2Season APEX271.4

37.8Auto21.1

57.2Teleop23.6

27.2Endgame13.5

19Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	6
teleop	61	38
endgame	38	35
foul	0	0
total	128	79

Result

Final score

128 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 7.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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