Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.8 – 153.73

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.1 ±11.7

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 57.73Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 75.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 22.69Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.1 ±11

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 31.45Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 46.08Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 76.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4015, 1310, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4015, 1310, 4951

Auto

39.6 26%

Teleop

91.5 60%

Endgame

20.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7200, 6110, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7200, 6110, 5885

Auto

51.3 32%

Teleop

70.7 44%

Endgame

38.8 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.8pts

Blue projected score153.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.1
Score range: 126–184
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 155.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.1Season APEX313.1

39.6Auto51.3

91.5Teleop70.7

20.6Endgame38.8

26Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	39
teleop	28	79
endgame	49	20
foul	0	0
total	99	138

Result

Final score

99 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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