Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.56 – 214.21

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286 ±13.9

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 85.05Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 58.85Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 18.66Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±10.5

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 75.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 156.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -17.7Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 865, 9592, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 865, 9592, 5672

Auto

23.3 16%

Teleop

81.3 54%

Endgame

44.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6397, 8884, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6397, 8884, 9580

Auto

29.5 15%

Teleop

142.4 71%

Endgame

29.5 15%

Strengths

· 8884 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.6pts

Blue projected score214.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.6
Score range: 136–241
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286Season APEX360

23.3Auto29.5

81.3Teleop142.4

44.7Endgame29.5

8Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	36
teleop	20	103
endgame	0	29
foul	25	10
total	64	178

Result

Final score

64 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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