Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.35 – 156.09

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 85.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.7 ±9.8

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 168.46Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 2.46Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 17.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291 ±11.7

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 59.9Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 74.43Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 21.76Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7558, 7659, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7558, 7659, 6865

Auto

26.3 14%

Teleop

106.7 56%

Endgame

57.5 30%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6859, 4920, 7200

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6859, 4920, 7200

Auto

18.7 12%

Teleop

73.5 46%

Endgame

69.2 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.4pts

Blue projected score156.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.3
Score range: 128–216
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 153.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.7Season APEX291

26.3Auto18.7

106.7Teleop73.5

57.5Endgame69.2

69Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	38
teleop	10	51
endgame	7	46
foul	10	0
total	38	135

Result

Final score

38 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 85.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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