Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 21.61

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.5 ±11.7

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX -18.21Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -2.74Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -4.55Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201 ±11.6

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -23.01Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 6.31Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 38.31Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3739, 8081, 854

/ 100 compat

Projected

-25.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3739, 8081, 854

Auto

13.9 0%

Teleop

-19.0 79%

Endgame

-19.1 79%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6864, 4951, 6110

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6864, 4951, 6110

Auto

17.7 78%

Teleop

13.6 60%

Endgame

-8.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-25.5pts

Blue projected score21.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.6
Score range: -28–50
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 158.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.5Season APEX201

13.9Auto17.7

-19Teleop13.6

-19.1Endgame-8.7

83Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	13
teleop	42	2
endgame	23	18
foul	0	0
total	78	33

Result

Final score

78 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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