Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.81 – 139.69

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.1 ±11.2

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 3.32Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 145.11Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 51.38Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.3 ±11.7

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 10.39Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 64.67Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 64.63Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4688, 188, 4015

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4688, 188, 4015

Auto

30.8 15%

Teleop

108.9 54%

Endgame

60.9 30%

Strengths

· 188 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5672, 7603, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5672, 7603, 5885

Auto

38.7 32%

Teleop

68.5 57%

Endgame

13.8 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.8pts

Blue projected score139.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.1
Score range: 112–228
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.1Season APEX273.3

30.8Auto38.7

108.9Teleop68.5

60.9Endgame13.8

84Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	26
teleop	137	88
endgame	24	71
foul	5	0
total	225	185

Result

Final score

225 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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