Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.39 – 203.08

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.1 ±9.8

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 10.5Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 15.27Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -6.38Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.8 ±10.4

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 43.17Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 54.75Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 105.16Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 10611, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 10611, 9580

Auto

11.9 100%

Teleop

-8.3 0%

Endgame

7.4 67%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1310, 2706, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1310, 2706, 1305

Auto

36.8 18%

Teleop

113.7 56%

Endgame

52.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.4pts

Blue projected score203.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -183.7
Score range: -9–231
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 156.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.1Season APEX381.8

11.9Auto36.8

-8.3Teleop113.7

7.4Endgame52

10Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	45
teleop	10	130
endgame	5	78
foul	5	15
total	28	268

Result

Final score

28 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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