Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.03 – 222.88

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±11

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -14.17Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 78.19Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 10.01Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.1 ±13.9

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 64.01Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 98.26Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 60.61Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 854, 9569, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 9569, 9782

Auto

5.1 7%

Teleop

35.8 48%

Endgame

33.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9592, 4069, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9592, 4069, 5031

Auto

25.1 11%

Teleop

124.7 54%

Endgame

82.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74pts

Blue projected score222.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148.8
Score range: 46–251
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 156.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.1Season APEX334.1

5.1Auto25.1

35.8Teleop124.7

33.6Endgame82.7

103Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	55
teleop	69	110
endgame	4	8
foul	20	40
total	108	213

Result

Final score

108 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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