Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
0 – 59.07
32%68%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
59 – 54
Prediction missed · off by 32 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±10.4
Season APEX 115.9Event APEX -25.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 0.89Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 24.82Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.9 ±12.2
Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 2.34Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 14.71Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70Event APEX 42.02Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3739, 6865, 7200
7
/ 100 compatProjected
-0.1 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 3739, 6865, 7200
Auto
7.9 100%
Teleop
-7.8 0%
Endgame
0.0 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8081, 5672, 6110
17
/ 100 compatProjected
59.1 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 8081, 5672, 6110
Auto
41.8 88%
Teleop
15.3 32%
Endgame
-9.7 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.93
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score-0.1pts
Blue projected score59.1pts
Red win probability32%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -59.1
- Score range
- -29–88
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
267.6Season APEX197.9
7.9Auto41.8
-7.8Teleop15.3
0Endgame-9.7
144Consistency49
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 25 |
| teleop | 26 | 26 |
| endgame | 15 | 3 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 59 | 54 |
Result
Final score
59 – 54
Prediction missed · off by 32 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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