Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.97 – 192.04

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.9 ±9.8

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX -2.37Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 6.63Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 150.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.6 ±11

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 138Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 51.91Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 2.13Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7659, 5672, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7659, 5672, 8884

Auto

19.3 13%

Teleop

87.8 61%

Endgame

37.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4069, 4951, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

192 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4069, 4951, 9782

Auto

21.5 12%

Teleop

99.7 55%

Endgame

59.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155pts

Blue projected score192pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.1
Score range: 122–225
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 183.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.9Season APEX307.6

19.3Auto21.5

87.8Teleop99.7

37.7Endgame59.6

48Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	18
teleop	136	85
endgame	61	30
foul	5	0
total	205	133

Result

Final score

205 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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