Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.5 – 160.83

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.6 ±12.2

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 66.83Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 66.87Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -14.2Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.9 ±9.8

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -21.98Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 156.74Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 26.07Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7603, 9569, 6864

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7603, 9569, 6864

Auto

29.8 28%

Teleop

49.9 47%

Endgame

26.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9580, 7558, 1310

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9580, 7558, 1310

Auto

28.5 18%

Teleop

88.3 57%

Endgame

39.2 25%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.5pts

Blue projected score160.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.3
Score range: 93–188
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 151.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.6Season APEX500.9

29.8Auto28.5

49.9Teleop88.3

26.7Endgame39.2

36Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	61
teleop	83	164
endgame	55	22
foul	0	10
total	153	257

Result

Final score

153 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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