Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.25 – 116.25

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

145 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 81.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±9.8

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 14.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX -8.43Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 89.28Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309 ±11

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX -26.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 101.9Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 40.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 4688, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 4688, 4069

Auto

16.1 17%

Teleop

57.8 61%

Endgame

20.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 1305, 6397

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4951, 1305, 6397

Auto

20.3 19%

Teleop

60.3 56%

Endgame

26.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.3pts

Blue projected score116.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21
Score range: 68–143
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 151.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.2Season APEX309

16.1Auto20.3

57.8Teleop60.3

20.4Endgame26.8

89Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	49
teleop	65	129
endgame	67	42
foul	0	10
total	145	230

Result

Final score

145 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 81.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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