Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
188.12 – 216.36
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
246 – 211
Prediction missed · off by 31.6 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 429 ±11.2
Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 20.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 58.5Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 109.49Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 86.62Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 14Event APEX 92.02Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 109Event APEX 37.72Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8081, 5885, 8884
75
/ 100 compatProjected
188.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 8081, 5885, 8884
Auto
36.6 20%
Teleop
120.0 64%
Endgame
30.8 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4069, 6859, 2706
83
/ 100 compatProjected
216.4 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4069, 6859, 2706
Auto
24.9 11%
Teleop
130.9 60%
Endgame
62.3 29%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.86
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score188.1pts
Blue projected score216.4pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -28.2
- Score range
- 161–243
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
429Season APEX293.9
36.6Auto24.9
120Teleop130.9
30.8Endgame62.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 22 |
| teleop | 127 | 113 |
| endgame | 49 | 76 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 246 | 211 |
Result
Final score
246 – 211
Prediction missed · off by 31.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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