Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.71 – 71.31

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 98.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.3 ±10.5

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 2.63Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 36.88Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 47.2Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.6 ±10.4

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 25.85Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 33Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 12.46Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10611, 6397, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10611, 6397, 7558

Auto

18.0 22%

Teleop

54.2 66%

Endgame

10.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5672, 7200, 854

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5672, 7200, 854

Auto

2.5 3%

Teleop

45.7 61%

Endgame

26.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.7pts

Blue projected score71.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.4
Score range: 42–116
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 160.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.3Season APEX250.6

18Auto2.5

54.2Teleop45.7

10Endgame26.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	22
teleop	149	15
endgame	64	9
foul	0	0
total	259	46

Result

Final score

259 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 98.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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