Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.16 – 170.55

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.5 ±11.7

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -1.81Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 93.88Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 56.09Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309 ±11.7

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 154.85Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 14.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 1.51Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9580, 2706, 7603

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9580, 2706, 7603

Auto

23.4 17%

Teleop

78.1 57%

Endgame

35.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 188, 8081, 6864

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 188, 8081, 6864

Auto

35.8 21%

Teleop

94.2 56%

Endgame

37.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.2pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 115–204
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 183.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.5Season APEX309

23.4Auto35.8

78.1Teleop94.2

35.8Endgame37.3

6Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	49
teleop	61	45
endgame	36	9
foul	20	0
total	139	103

Result

Final score

139 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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