Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.73 – 282.78

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

357 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626 ±9.3

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 227.56Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 19.58Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 156.59Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.3 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 31.49Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 100.25Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 151.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7558, 10611, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7558, 10611, 188

Auto

58.9 15%

Teleop

234.2 59%

Endgame

102.3 26%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 5885, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 5885, 8884

Auto

48.3 17%

Teleop

159.4 58%

Endgame

68.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score403.7pts

Blue projected score282.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121
Score range: 250–437
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 630 vs event baseline 181.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626Season APEX454.3

58.9Auto48.3

234.2Teleop159.4

102.3Endgame68.7

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	30
teleop	173	179
endgame	95	54
foul	15	10
total	357	273

Result

Final score

357 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

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