Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

406.31 – 278.76

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

387 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626 ±9.3

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 228.48Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 20.3Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 157.53Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.3 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 30.12Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 98.92Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 149.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7558, 10611, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7558, 10611, 188

Auto

56.5 14%

Teleop

244.3 61%

Endgame

98.1 25%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 5885, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 5885, 8884

Auto

45.3 17%

Teleop

163.7 60%

Endgame

63.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score406.3pts

Blue projected score278.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.6
Score range: 247–438
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 179.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626Season APEX454.3

56.5Auto45.3

244.3Teleop163.7

98.1Endgame63.1

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	74
teleop	161	120
endgame	134	116
foul	15	5
total	387	315

Result

Final score

387 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Match videos

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