Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.91 – 178.59

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 2.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.5 ±11.7

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 96.52Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 35.59Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 89.8Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.8 ±14.9

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 28.58Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 68.97Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 81.04Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2718, 4523, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2718, 4523, 5454

Auto

37.5 17%

Teleop

128.4 58%

Endgame

54.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1832, 1561, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1832, 1561, 10980

Auto

50.7 28%

Teleop

96.8 53%

Endgame

33.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.9pts

Blue projected score178.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 147–254
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 177.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.5Season APEX398.8

37.5Auto50.7

128.4Teleop96.8

54.3Endgame33.6

18Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	34
teleop	105	90
endgame	72	44
foul	0	5
total	222	173

Result

Final score

222 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 2.8 pts

Match videos

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