Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

228.98 – 287.14

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.3 ±13.6

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 20Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 107.19Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 101.79Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±10.4

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 61.17Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 103.2Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 122.77Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1819, 5550, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

229 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1819, 5550, 5653

Auto

31.3 14%

Teleop

134.5 61%

Endgame

55.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10661, 3277, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 3277, 2403

Auto

44.4 16%

Teleop

166.3 58%

Endgame

74.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229pts

Blue projected score287.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.2
Score range: 197–319
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 177.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.3Season APEX428.2

31.3Auto44.4

134.5Teleop166.3

55.9Endgame74.4

21Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	42
teleop	132	109
endgame	46	83
foul	0	0
total	239	234

Result

Final score

239 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 pts

Match videos

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