Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.07 – 166.67

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.8 ±14.9

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 25.55Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 66.53Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 78.99Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.7 ±13.9

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 58.76Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 48.22Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 59.69Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1832, 1561, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1832, 1561, 10980

Auto

46.3 27%

Teleop

91.0 52%

Endgame

37.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2345, 6026, 3313

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2345, 6026, 3313

Auto

31.1 20%

Teleop

88.6 56%

Endgame

38.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.1pts

Blue projected score166.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.4
Score range: 135–203
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 176.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.8Season APEX301.7

46.3Auto31.1

91Teleop88.6

37.4Endgame38.6

57Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	37
teleop	101	63
endgame	18	44
foul	0	0
total	191	144

Result

Final score

191 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Match videos

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