Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.88 – 219.45

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

273 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.1 ±14.5

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 69.84Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 42.46Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 113.58Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±12.8

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 34.79Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 90.91Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 93.75Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3179, 4005, 6353

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 4005, 6353

Auto

25.4 11%

Teleop

135.0 60%

Endgame

63.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3160, 2373, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3160, 2373, 6424

Auto

40.8 19%

Teleop

123.9 59%

Endgame

46.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.9pts

Blue projected score219.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 187–258
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 573 vs event baseline 175.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.1Season APEX325.1

25.4Auto40.8

135Teleop123.9

63.2Endgame46.9

56Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	69
teleop	189	143
endgame	55	73
foul	15	15
total	273	300

Result

Final score

273 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 63.8 pts

Match videos

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