Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.44 – 172.87

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

357 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±10.4

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 53.2Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 96.32Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 114.92Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.7 ±13.9

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 61.66Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 49.84Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 61.37Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10661, 3277, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 3277, 2403

Auto

41.8 16%

Teleop

153.8 58%

Endgame

68.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3313, 6026, 2345

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3313, 6026, 2345

Auto

29.7 18%

Teleop

96.8 60%

Endgame

35.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.4pts

Blue projected score172.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.6
Score range: 142–295
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.2Season APEX301.7

41.8Auto29.7

153.8Teleop96.8

68Endgame35

53Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	35
teleop	200	68
endgame	95	50
foul	5	0
total	357	153

Result

Final score

357 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Match videos

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