Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.51 – 182.35

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.3 ±13.6

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 17.9Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 103.56Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 99.05Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.8 ±14.9

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 29.83Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 69.1Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 83.42Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1819, 5550, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1819, 5550, 5653

Auto

26.5 12%

Teleop

128.4 60%

Endgame

58.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1832, 1561, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1832, 1561, 10980

Auto

52.4 28%

Teleop

95.7 51%

Endgame

39.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score220.5pts

Blue projected score182.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.2
Score range: 151–252
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 173.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.3Season APEX398.8

26.5Auto52.4

128.4Teleop95.7

58.1Endgame39.1

22Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	31
teleop	147	83
endgame	49	35
foul	5	0
total	250	149

Result

Final score

250 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Match videos

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