Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.32 – 234.2

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±12.8

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 40.73Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 94.96Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 100.63Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.5 ±11.7

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 98.6Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 39.64Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 95.96Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3160, 2373, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3160, 2373, 6424

Auto

35.7 15%

Teleop

134.1 58%

Endgame

60.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2718, 4523, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2718, 4523, 5454

Auto

34.8 15%

Teleop

136.0 59%

Endgame

61.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score236.3pts

Blue projected score234.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.1
Score range: 203–267
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 173.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.1Season APEX479.5

35.7Auto34.8

134.1Teleop136

60.6Endgame61.3

38Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	36
teleop	88	140
endgame	1	32
foul	15	0
total	162	208

Result

Final score

162 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 50.3 pts

Match videos

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