Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

511.09 – 211.97

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

473 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 651.9 ±11.7

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 30.05Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 203.79Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 277.25Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.1 ±14.5

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 65.52Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 37.38Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 109.07Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2359, 4403, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

511.1 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2359, 4403, 498

Auto

88.7 18%

Teleop

299.4 61%

Endgame

101.3 21%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3179, 4005, 6353

/ 100 compat

Projected

212 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 4005, 6353

Auto

26.8 13%

Teleop

129.7 61%

Endgame

54.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score511.1pts

Blue projected score212pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 299.1
Score range: 181–542
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 734 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

651.9Season APEX292.1

88.7Auto26.8

299.4Teleop129.7

101.3Endgame54.4

18Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	22
teleop	245	145
endgame	125	89
foul	5	5
total	473	261

Result

Final score

473 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 pts

Match videos

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