Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.34 – 221.33

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±10.4

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 59.09Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 101.5Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 120.75Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.5 ±11.7

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 96.4Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 34.81Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 90.12Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10661, 3277, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 3277, 2403

Auto

47.0 17%

Teleop

159.2 57%

Endgame

73.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2718, 4523, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2718, 4523, 5454

Auto

38.7 18%

Teleop

123.6 56%

Endgame

57.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score281.3pts

Blue projected score221.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60
Score range: 189–313
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 180.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.2Season APEX479.5

47Auto38.7

159.2Teleop123.6

73.6Endgame57.6

34Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	37
teleop	154	82
endgame	77	65
foul	0	0
total	293	184

Result

Final score

293 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Match videos

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