Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.37 – 164.93

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 104.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.4 ±14.1

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 30.09Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 61.14Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 23.14Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 649.7 ±11.7

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 10.93Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 104.29Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 49.71Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10377, 2718, 2165

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10377, 2718, 2165

Auto

14.3 13%

Teleop

69.1 60%

Endgame

31.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6026, 498, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6026, 498, 10980

Auto

28.6 17%

Teleop

104.0 64%

Endgame

31.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.4pts

Blue projected score164.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.6
Score range: 88–191
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.4Season APEX649.7

14.3Auto28.6

69.1Teleop104

31Endgame31

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	81
teleop	61	253
endgame	20	36
foul	0	0
total	111	370

Result

Final score

111 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 104.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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