Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.91 – 82.62

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 20.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.3 ±20.2

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 15.43Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX -Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9462Toefur's Titans

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX -Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.1 ±15

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 31.14Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9244, 1832, 9462

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9244, 1832, 9462

Auto

19.7 29%

Teleop

32.6 49%

Endgame

14.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8711, 2352, 2345

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8711, 2352, 2345

Auto

18.3 22%

Teleop

44.0 53%

Endgame

20.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66.9pts

Blue projected score82.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.7
Score range: 39–111
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 154.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.3Season APEX221.1

4.3Auto2.9

6.9Teleop18.3

4.3Endgame10

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	19
teleop	30	12
endgame	9	12
foul	0	0
total	66	43

Result

Final score

66 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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