Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.56 – 156.72

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±12.4

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 105.2Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 87.4Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 9.96Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.3 ±16.6

3163ROARBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 14.93Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 37.17Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 104.62Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2403, 3277, 2165

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2403, 3277, 2165

Auto

37.1 18%

Teleop

117.4 56%

Endgame

54.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3163, 2341, 6353

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3163, 2341, 6353

Auto

18.7 13%

Teleop

91.5 61%

Endgame

38.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.6pts

Blue projected score156.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: 126–234
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 170.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.7Season APEX267.3

37.1Auto18.7

117.4Teleop91.5

54.3Endgame38.6

49Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	13
teleop	196	77
endgame	39	80
foul	0	30
total	298	200

Result

Final score

298 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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