Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.4 – 100.92

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 65.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±16.2

9631Chargers

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 26.25Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 15.61Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 101.54Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±18.8

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 54.07Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9462Toefur's Titans

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 46.27Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10626Smokin Batteries

Provisional

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 0.58Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9631, 3275, 2718

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9631, 3275, 2718

Auto

24.9 18%

Teleop

74.7 54%

Endgame

38.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3313, 9462, 10626

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3313, 9462, 10626

Auto

25.4 27%

Teleop

55.9 60%

Endgame

11.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.4pts

Blue projected score100.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.5
Score range: 70–174
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 170.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.2Season APEX236.1

24.9Auto25.4

74.7Teleop55.9

38Endgame11.5

4Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	44
teleop	42	133
endgame	65	31
foul	0	0
total	119	208

Result

Final score

119 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 65.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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