Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.29 – 64.29

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.5 ±13.9

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 23.82Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 32.57Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 3.9Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±17.4

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 29.88Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 16.09Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 18.32Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2773, 3160, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2773, 3160, 1209

Auto

20.3 33%

Teleop

23.8 38%

Endgame

18.3 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1832, 1819, 31

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1832, 1819, 31

Auto

14.1 26%

Teleop

5.9 11%

Endgame

33.6 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.3pts

Blue projected score64.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4
Score range: 29–95
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 171.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.5Season APEX191

20.3Auto14.1

23.8Teleop5.9

18.3Endgame33.6

92Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	22
teleop	87	47
endgame	26	15
foul	0	0
total	141	84

Result

Final score

141 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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