Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.47 – 365.68

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±15.6

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 33.7Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 89.33Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 32.44Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.7 ±12.4

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 57.01Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 25.82Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 282.85Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2333, 2373, 9498

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2333, 2373, 9498

Auto

23.4 15%

Teleop

89.8 56%

Endgame

45.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10661, 10377, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.7 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 10377, 498

Auto

56.2 16%

Teleop

227.9 65%

Endgame

68.0 19%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.5pts

Blue projected score365.7pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -210.2
Score range: 124–397
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.1Season APEX483.7

23.4Auto56.2

89.8Teleop227.9

45.8Endgame68

70Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	63
teleop	122	155
endgame	61	95
foul	0	10
total	204	323

Result

Final score

204 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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