Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.49 – 342

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

216 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.8 ±15.6

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 17.73Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 76.68Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 29.08Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±12.8

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 49.63Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 77.38Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 214.99Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9244, 10980, 4523

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9244, 10980, 4523

Auto

36.2 28%

Teleop

62.5 49%

Endgame

29.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4005, 3179, 4403

/ 100 compat

Projected

342 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4005, 3179, 4403

Auto

51.1 15%

Teleop

207.1 62%

Endgame

75.7 23%

Strengths

· 4403 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score123.5pts

Blue projected score342pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -218.5
Score range: 93–372
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 168.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.8Season APEX401.9

36.2Auto51.1

62.5Teleop207.1

29.3Endgame75.7

18Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	59
teleop	105	124
endgame	85	60
foul	0	0
total	216	243

Result

Final score

216 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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