Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.93 – 206.01

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.2 ±17

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 8.7Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 55.72Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9007MIT (Muskogee's Innovative Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 17.51Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.7 ±13.9

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 96.8Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 67.45Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 41.76Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2165, 3465, 9007

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2165, 3465, 9007

Auto

23.8 29%

Teleop

30.0 36%

Endgame

29.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5653, 1561, 3278

/ 100 compat

Projected

206 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5653, 1561, 3278

Auto

47.9 23%

Teleop

111.8 54%

Endgame

45.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.9pts

Blue projected score206pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.1
Score range: 52–236
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 168.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.2Season APEX381.7

23.8Auto47.9

30Teleop111.8

29.5Endgame45.6

17Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	37
teleop	28	141
endgame	38	73
foul	0	0
total	81	251

Result

Final score

81 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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