Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.79 – 75.79

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.8 ±18

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX -Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10626Smokin Batteries

Provisional

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3163ROARBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.1 ±15.6

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX -Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4403, 10626, 3163

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4403, 10626, 3163

Auto

22.7 30%

Teleop

37.9 50%

Endgame

15.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10661, 9498, 3160

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 9498, 3160

Auto

22.7 30%

Teleop

37.9 50%

Endgame

15.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.8pts

Blue projected score75.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 49–103
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 151.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.8Season APEX217.1

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	26
teleop	125	60
endgame	36	47
foul	5	0
total	210	133

Result

Final score

210 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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